Authors:
I.R. Igboanugo, S.O. Iheukwumere, M.C. Obikwelu, M.L. Ozoemene, C.C. Umeogu, P.I Eburu
and D.C. Onuoha |
Abstract:
The vulnerability of the Northern region in Anambra was modelled using the Analytical Hierarchical Process
(AHP,) Best Worst Method (BWM) and Criteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation Method
(CRITIC Method) by performing a pairwise comparison matrix of the nine flood influential factors with the
aid of GIS. This was modelled with the aid of Geographic Information System (GIS). GIS, is a sophisticated
software for modelling and predicting spatial aspects of the real world. Nine flood conditioning factors were
used to model the flood susceptibility of Northern Anambra region. The conditioning factors for the analysis
include rainfall, slope, aspect, lithology, LULC, elevation, SPI, NDVI, and drainage density. The value
obtained from AHP, BWM and CRITIC method analysis indicated that 73%, 72% and 78% of the land area
is susceptible to flooding, thus this implies that about 1197.89km2 out of the 1794km2 are liable to experience
frequent flooding events. These values were validated with AUC curve, with AHP, BWM and CRITIC
method having an accuracy prediction of 74%, 73% and 78% respectively at 95% level of confidence.
According to the flood inventory and the modelled map, flooding is evident in the southwest, west, and southeastern parts of the study area. Rainfall is weighted as the highest influencing factor for AHP and BWM but
Aspect weighted the highest influencing factor for CRITIC method. Thus, we recommend that effort for
provision of sophisticated drainage system, which will enable water to make its path to the river in the rainy
season, this will mitigate dry land being submerged in water at every rainy season.
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Keywords:
Flood, susceptibility, Geospatial, Flood Analysis, Disaster Management, Analytical
Hierarchical Process (AHP), Best Worst Method (BWM), Criteria Importance Through Intercriteria
Correlation Method (CRITIC method). |
